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Understanding the Bitcoin cycle
Cycle Convergence Framework (CCF): five pillars that map where BTC sits between historical cycle lows and highs.
Why cycles matter
Bitcoin has repeated multi-year structures: accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown. No two cycles copy the last, but trend exhaustion, drawdown depth, and on-chain holder cost basis often rhyme. CCF measures when those rhymes converge.
The five pillars
- Trend Structure: Measures how far the fast EMA has detached from the slow EMA. Deep negative gaps mark capitulation phases; large positive gaps mark parabolic extensions. Deep dive →
- Price Exhaustion: The most reliable single-family signal. RSI below 27 appeared at every confirmed bottom since 2015 without exception. Deep dive →
- Cycle Depth: Combines drawdown from the 1-year high, distance from the 200-day MA, and proximity to the 200-week MA generational support. Deep dive →
- On-Chain MVRV: Market cap vs realized cap. Below 1.0 means average holders are underwater. Above 2.5 means broad profit-taking zone. Catches mid-cycle false bottoms that RSI alone misses. Deep dive →
- Funding Positioning: Perpetual futures funding rates show leveraged crowd positioning. Extreme negative = shorts paying longs. Extreme positive = long cascade risk. Deep dive →
Zone logic
- 3+ pillars vote cycle-low → Bottom Zone (moderate conviction)
- 4+ pillars vote cycle-low, or MVRV + Exhaustion both fire → Bottom Zone (high conviction)
- 3+ pillars vote cycle-high → Top Zone (moderate conviction)
- 4+ pillars vote cycle-high, or MVRV + Exhaustion both fire → Top Zone (high conviction)
- Otherwise → Mid-cycle / neutral watch
Power signal: MVRV + Price Exhaustion convergence.
Zones, not targets
Pillars vote toward cycle-low, cycle-high, or neutral. Three aligned votes define a zone. FynSight reports the zone and conviction. We do not publish price targets or timing calls.