Cycle Convergence Framework

Cycle Convergence Framework (CCF)

A five-pillar voting model that maps where Bitcoin sits between historical cycle lows and highs by requiring multiple independent indicators to align before declaring a cycle zone.

Most Bitcoin analysis tools answer the wrong question. They tell you whether momentum is positive or negative today. They do not tell you whether today resembles a generational bottom, a distribution top, or a mid-cycle pullback that will resolve higher within months.

CCF was built to answer the cycle question. Not "should I buy now?" but "what kind of market is this in a multi-year context?" The framework watches five analytical families that have historically diverged at cycle extremes: trend structure, price exhaustion, cycle depth, on-chain holder economics, and leveraged positioning in perpetual futures.

Each family votes cycle-low, cycle-high, or neutral. Votes are binary at calibrated thresholds derived from every confirmed structural extreme since 2015. When three or more pillars agree, a zone activates. The zone is a context label, not a trade instruction.

RSI below 30 is the most common "Bitcoin bottom" rule on social media. It is also one of the most misleading if used alone. On the 2022 decline from $69,000 to $16,000, RSI dipped below 30 multiple times before the actual November 2022 bottom. Each dip looked like exhaustion. Each dip was followed by lower prices.

MACD crosses, Bollinger touches, and Fear & Greed extremes suffer the same problem. They are designed for timing entries within a trend, not for identifying THE bottom or THE top of a multi-year cycle. A single indicator fires repeatedly because markets grind through fear in stages.

The research insight behind CCF is convergence. Industry frameworks like the Bitcoin Clarity Index, Colin Talks Crypto Bull Run Index, and multi-signal on-chain composites all share this principle: no single metric is sufficient. When valuation, momentum, depth, on-chain economics, and positioning align simultaneously, the signal density rises sharply.

FynSight's contribution is a transparent, pillar-by-pillar breakdown calibrated specifically on local extrema rather than arbitrary date ranges. You can see exactly which pillar voted and what threshold it needed to cross. Nothing is hidden inside a black-box composite.

The calibration script used scipy.signal.argrelextrema with order=120 on Bitcoin daily closes. That finds price points where BTC was the lowest or highest in a 120-day window on both sides. Noise wiggles are filtered out. Only structural market extremes remain.

At each extreme date, the script measured EMA 10/100 gap, RSI, Bollinger Band %, drawdown from 1-year high, distance from 200-day MA, proximity to 200-week MA, MVRV from CoinMetrics, and average perpetual funding rates. Forward returns were tracked at 30, 90, 180, and 365 days.

Nine confirmed bottoms emerged: 2015, Jun 2018, Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Jul 2021, Nov 2022, Sep 2024, Apr 2025, and Jun 2026. Nine confirmed tops emerged across the same period. Thresholds were set where indicators showed the strongest historical consistency, not where they looked best in hindsight.

Pillar 1: Trend Structure

The EMA 10/100 gap measures how far the fast moving average has detached from the slow one. At deep bottoms, this gap is always negative and large. Dec 2018 printed -36.0%. Nov 2022 printed -16.4%. Average across all bottoms: -15.2%. At tops, the gap is positive and extended. Dec 2017 hit +93.6%. CCF bottom vote: gap below -8%. Top vote: gap above +20%.

Pillar 2: Price Exhaustion

RSI measures momentum exhaustion. Bollinger Band % shows how far price has stretched below the statistical range. RSI below 27 appeared at every confirmed bottom without exception. Average: 21.1. At tops, RSI was above 75 every time. Average: 81.6. This is the most reliable single-family signal, but CCF never uses it alone.

Full RSI cycle guide →

Pillar 3: Cycle Depth

Three sub-signals combine: drawdown from the 1-year high, distance below the 200-day MA, and proximity to the 200-week MA. Average drawdown at bottoms: -56.8%. Dec 2018 hit -83.9%. The 200-week MA near $62,153 in mid-2026 acts as generational support. It was breached during panic bottoms and held during recovery phases.

Pillar 4: On-Chain MVRV

MVRV compares market cap to realized cap. Below 1.0 means average holders are underwater. Above 2.5 means broad profit distribution. This pillar catches false bottoms that RSI cannot. Jul 2021 had RSI below 27 but MVRV 3.36. The real bottom came 16 months later at MVRV 0.75.

Full MVRV guide →

Pillar 5: Funding Positioning

Perpetual futures funding shows where leveraged traders are crowded. Negative funding below -15% APR means shorts pay longs. Positive funding above +30% APR means long cascade risk. Nov 2021 saw +100%+ APR before the top. Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 both showed deeply negative funding before the turn.

Full funding rate guide →

• 3+ pillars vote cycle-low → Bottom Zone (moderate conviction)
• 4+ pillars vote cycle-low, or MVRV + Exhaustion both fire → Bottom Zone (high conviction)
• 3+ pillars vote cycle-high → Top Zone (moderate conviction)
• 4+ pillars vote cycle-high, or MVRV + Exhaustion both fire → Top Zone (high conviction)
• Otherwise → Mid-cycle / neutral watch

Zones are labels, not commands. A bottom zone means conditions resemble historical periods where major lows formed. A top zone means distribution risk is elevated relative to the calibration set. Mid-cycle means mixed votes with no convergence.

Jun 2026 at $60,867 nearly triggered a high conviction bottom. RSI hit 6.2. MVRV was 1.135. Both exhaustion and on-chain pillars fired together. Price has since recovered to the low $60,000s with RSI back near 41, meaning the active extreme may be behind us unless another leg down retests the zone.

Dec 2018 and Nov 2022 are the cleanest generational bottoms. Both showed MVRV below 1.0, RSI below 27, deep drawdowns, and negative funding. One-year forward returns: +121% and +127% respectively. Past patterns are not forecasts.

Oct 2025 at $124,753 is the most recent major top in the dataset. RSI 83.4, MVRV 2.29, multiple pillars elevated. Five-month forward drawdown: approximately -47%.

Tops are more reliable than bottoms in the backtest. Greed clusters. Fear disperses. This asymmetry is real and the framework reflects it. Use top zones for risk context. Use bottom zones for accumulation context. Neither is a timing tool.

Step one: check the live pillar panel on the cycle position page. Step two: count converging votes. Step three: note conviction level. Step four: use the zone for context on position sizing outside any automated system, not as a trade trigger.

If you watch one number, watch MVRV approaching 1.0. Every generational bottom in the dataset broke below that line. It is currently near 1.13 as of early July 2026. A retest of $55,000 to $60,000 on negative funding would likely activate multiple pillars simultaneously.